Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-09 18.372490 22.217129 26.483088 31.541906 37.350424 43.784001 51.420694
2025-03-16 11.711506 16.370651 22.131409 29.665882 39.138355 50.525876 65.111217
2025-03-23 9.089938 14.207715 21.071139 30.703141 43.596714 59.968309 81.995310
2025-03-30 6.903346 11.972939 19.293675 30.224641 45.662052 66.175653 94.902374
2025-04-06 5.877058 11.122731 19.172643 31.802587 50.399161 75.982606 112.899165
2025-04-13 4.264919 8.961428 16.701591 29.551532 49.372454 77.693616 119.900064
2025-04-20 3.566808 8.165825 16.192428 30.120110 52.381433 85.108735 135.060791
2025-04-27 3.052310 7.578549 15.909930 30.958363 55.786031 93.211341 151.531657
2025-05-04 2.666760 7.148970 15.817259 32.056288 59.619454 102.097221 169.502969
2025-05-11 2.285651 6.634085 15.477654 32.659929 62.649169 109.869233 186.120404
2025-05-18 1.883808 5.967027 14.734557 32.438199 64.247714 115.452595 199.623017
2025-05-25 1.492672 5.210945 13.681402 31.502323 64.512481 118.879764 209.895079
2025-06-01 1.199242 4.649670 13.015672 31.377570 66.454889 125.563635 226.322078
2025-06-08 0.853441 3.806389 11.569481 29.543873 65.218508 127.037946 234.746313
2025-06-15 0.731391 3.592937 11.535360 30.580096 69.319757 137.652876 258.358860
2025-06-22 0.565090 3.150392 10.840439 30.103300 70.488058 143.276301 274.001237
2025-06-29 0.505422 3.072282 11.067994 31.676186 75.730022 156.231042 302.333175
2025-07-06 0.339479 2.461990 9.705304 29.432381 73.191410 155.248748 307.119378
2025-07-13 0.281675 2.290725 9.550269 29.999118 76.378565 164.696074 330.048554
2025-07-20 0.238990 2.166634 9.509495 30.834669 80.174146 175.419220 355.567073
2025-07-27 0.207244 2.080696 9.570418 31.929077 84.585583 187.468484 383.814564
2025-08-03 0.172337 1.948275 9.447336 32.530794 87.967436 197.722431 409.237047
2025-08-10 0.132999 1.747130 9.034949 32.309770 89.517697 204.553864 428.791531